The end of season solution we’ve been waiting for is here

The NBA may have good reason to keep a frenzied end to the regular season schedule moving forward.

Most people are ready for the playoffs to start, I, on the other hand, am very interested in how the stretch run towards the playoffs will play out over the next few weeks. The playoffs happen every single year… how often do 66-game-compressed-seasons happen? I probably don’t mean that in the most literal sense, but, unlike other seasons, I think that the strategy a particular team chooses to pursue entering the playoffs will have a bigger effect than it normally does. I’m sure the NBA will go back to 82 games, but PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE keep the condensed schedule during the last month of the season. It certainly makes how a team enters the playoffs more important and allows everything to be up for grabs with such a large bulk of games at the end. The body of work will still be most important for the very top seeds and everything else will be up for grabs. The difference is that it will just happen in a frenzy before a week’s break–that teams will gain by condensing the schedule–leading into the playoffs¹. Logistically, I haven’t thought about how what the the number of games the end-block would be, but I’m thinking 15 games in 25 days and then a week before the playoffs to recover.

¹I also think a condensed end of schedule will help with tanking because teams probably won’t be able to decide if they should tank or not until they know where they stand when that end-schedule frenzy comes. At that point, for the fans of teams that choose to tank it will be quick and painless instead of prolonged.  Maybe it’s a little out there, but it’s been a hot topic in the blogosphere that I wanted to make sure I put my two cents in. 

Stalkers, Front Runners, Closers, Early Front Runners

I just came from Vegas and my gambling was mostly on sports. I stayed at the MGM Grand where the Sportsbook and racing book are located in the same area, and couldn’t help but overhear the frumpy-looking gentleman in cheap jackets talk about Closers, the people I heard loved betting on closers². I’m going to try and make the analogy fit to the various strategies teams are using to approach the playoffs without bothering to mind the actual definitions in horse-racing terms because they aren’t important. The season as a whole is always a marathon race of sorts, but, as I mentioned earlier, the strategy that teams choose to run isn’t really important because the typical NBA regular season is a horse race with breaks for oats that happen sporadically and unevenly. This year, there are less differences in teams’ schedule discrepancy because the fact that every team is playing on such little rest trumps who is playing who. It’s more of a genuine race, so monitoring the strategies of each team is more important than ever because there is less room for error.

²It was comforting hearing these compulsive gamblers favoring the closer in their program because it illustrated the point that it isn’t just NBA fans who are obsessed with the subject of favoring players who are known as closers. It’s clearly a sports pandemic. Yet, I don’t think an individual game is at all like a horse race, which worries me a little. Is closer too strongly associated with something good, in general?  Maybe NBA fans are being manipulated to watch “The Closer”. Remind me to email Kyra Sedgwick or Turner about that.

These are in the order that I thought of the strategy type. Read into that what you will:

Horse 1. Pop–Early Frontrunner Concede achievable regular season goals to ensure that the team is as healthy as it can possibly be going into the playoffs.  There is only one team using the Pop, and I think that the decision to do so is guided more by what happened last year than the shortened schedule. I’m convinced that this would be San Antonio’s approach heading into the playoffs because their entire season seems to be guided on the lessons and scars of failing to advance out of the first round despite winning a league-best 62 games in 2011. In my opinion, even though the Grizzlies were a bad matchup for the Spurs because of the Gasol-Randolph tandem, the most important factor in how that series was decided was that San Antonio lost home-court advantage, in the Grizzlies’ Game 1 victory, because their best player, Manu Ginobili, was not healthy enough to play. I had Manu Ginobili rated as the third best player in the league during the 2011 regular season (LeBron and Dirk were first and second, respectively), and most other metrics–eyeballs, adjusted +/-, WIn Shares–had Manu as the best Spur. To prevent history from repeating itself the Spurs were acquired Diaw and Jackson, two players that could immediately contribute as stand-ins to ensure Duncan and Manu will be as-healthy-as-possible when the playoffs arrive (I’m sure they tried to nab a point guard too, but it was a seller’s market). If Captain Jack serves as a catalyst for a big playoff moment or two, I think that’s gravy because Richard Jefferson, the man who Jackson replaced, didn’t seem to be good for any. I don’t think San Antonio is playing for anything other than health at this point even if the number one seed is within reach. Frankly, I think the Spurs like the idea of the Thunder playing the Grizzlies, Clippers, or Lakers in the second round. In my opinion, all of those teams match up better with Oklahoma City than San Antonio because the Spurs will just have no answer for the Thunder athletically.

Horse 2. Doctor Scotty Brown–Frontrunner Go all out for the stretch-run to achieve the best possible playoff seeding and hope momentum carries over to the playoffs. Every game is important. This is the strategy that seems to be the one every team uses in a typical 82-game season as contenders approach the playoffs. You know the story: try and peak as the playoffs approach. The actual effectiveness of the momentum strategy is something that’s difficult to prove as effective because so many teams use it that the good and bad results kind of cancel each other out. So, I’ll have to settle for the assumption that you, as a basketball fan, know that conventional wisdom says a team wants to be running on all cylinders heading into the playoffs³. The nature of this season, and the health factor has limited the teams using this. The Celtics, Thunder, and Lakers have all been blessed with both good health to their key players and talent that permits them to not have to position themselves for a first round matchup that makes them more likely to advance. By health, I mean, that the production of the three best players on these teams (Rondo, Garnett, Pierce⁴ for the Celts; Westbrook, Durant, Harden for the Thunder; Bryant, Bynum, Gasol for the Lakers) doesn’t seem to be affected by the day-to-day nature of whatever injuries they are playing with. Unlike teams using the Doug Hollins Voegel running style (which I will get to shortly), these teams seem to be less concerned with positioning themselves for particular playoff opponents.

³Trying to prove/disprove the conventional wisdom of the momentum strategy isn’t the point of this piece. I’m just trying to describe the different running styles of the horses in this race. I’m sorry I even brought it up. Too late now.

⁴I don’t feel like pretending that Ray Allen is one of the three best players on the Celtics. He’s there to hit open shots. Depending on how the ball bounces, any given player is capable of hitting an open shot. Remember when Glen Davis hit one against Orlando in the second round of the 2009 Playoffs? Glen freaking Davis. The Celtics will need Allen to beat the Heat or Bulls, but may be okay limiting him against any other Eastern team, including Orlando.

Horse 3. Riley–Closer In the land of no-practices, what you think you know is King. That, and talent. Mostly talent. The squabble I’ve heard these past few weeks, as the Heat have fumbled their way through “statement games” against important opponents (like the Thunder and Bulls) is that Miami’s strategy for the playoffs is to cruise along until they arrive. Come on, do you really believe that?  After all these years, I’d hope that the Media knows Pat Riley better than that. Maybe people just need something to talk about and Kevin Durant’s choirboy schtick isn’t moving the meter. The Heat play the Bulls twice, the Celtics twice, and the Thunder once. They have the luxury of waiting until the last possible second to turn it on AND grab home-court. Then again, maybe, when it comes to the Heat, logic doesn’t apply. One quick story on why I’m convinced this is Riley’s team: Back when Riley was with the Knicks, visitors to the Garden used to complain about the ball pressure being higher than the legal limit. Higher ball pressure means a bouncier ball. That’s something that would be easy to prepare for if the team practiced with such a ball. It’s also a curveball that could throw an unprepared pound-the-rock point guard, a shooter, or rebounder etc. off just enough to take their head out of the game. Knowing this history, I couldn’t help but smile when Jeremy Lin started complaining about the ball being too bouncy during the February 23rd Knicks at Heat game–this was at the height of Linsanity right before the all-star break. Half of what made me smile was my nostalgia for the days that Riley failed using such tricks against Jordan, and the other half was knowing that Spoelstra may call the plays, but the Heat are doing it the Riley-way. It’ll be interesting to see if the Heat will also adopt the physicality of those Knicks. More on that in another post. Oh, by the way, the Heat did in fact squeeze in a practice right before their game with the Knicks. Maybe they used bouncier balls, maybe they didn’t. I’d rather that than Dwyane Wade using martial arts to break a player’s face or arm. I’m not saying that he has done such a thing, just that if Riley wants to look for an edge I would rather he travel the extra-bouncy-ball-route.

Horse 4. Doug Hollins Voegel Gundy–Stalker Position team to be in the best possible opponent matchup. My version of stalker in the NBA race to the playoffs is more of the predatory version than what stalker has come to mean as an unfortunate side-effect of the internet⁵. These teams are more interested in positioning themselves for matchups than seeding. The Grizzlies seem to be aiming to make sure that they are in the Thunder’s half of the bracket, and, to me, look like they are avoiding San Antonio and the Lakers. The Grizzlies avoiding the Spurs may seem counterintuitive, especially with what happened last year, but the Spurs are kind of built to beat teams that win inside out like Memphis, the Lakers, or Dallas. Memphis can really punish a team when it has a size advantage like Oklahoma City or Dallas. If a team can neutralize Memphis’ size advantage, I don’t trust any of the perimeter guys (Gay, Mayo, Conley) to carry past any of their potential first round matchups. Memphis is built to beat a team like the Thunder because Oklahoma City will have a hard time scoring on a Memphis team that will make them pay for their turnovers and will force them to live by the three-pointer.

Philadelphia is not in full stalk mode, mostly because they are still trying to just win games to avoid Chicago or Miami, but their schedule closes with a flurry of road games against teams playing for something. In terms of favorable matchups, I like the Sixers over any East team other than the Bulls or Heat. Homecourt advantage or not.  The poor free throw rate is a little worrisome, but Chicago only makes two more free throws a game than. I’m also of the philosophy that free throws are just a means to score, and I don’t think Philly will have trouble in that area. Combine that with their defense, and I just think they just have too many ways to beat most of the East’s teams. I’ve maintained all year that they are the clear third best team in the East, and there is no reason to back off that stance now.

The best matchup for Indiana, I suppose, is Boston where they can really take advantage of their ways to score from the wing, but I don’t think they are going to scare anyone. To me, they are the weakest of the East’s playoff teams.

Orlando is the anomaly. They are abysmal in my team rater even though their style of play is something my formula favors (they were rated first in 2010 and ninth in 2011). Dwight is capable of being the most dominant player in the league if he scores like he’s capable of. For all of Shaq’s warts as a TV analyst, the one thing I love is that he gets on Dwight’s case. He has the “championship belt”, so to speak, as the most dominant big man, but forgive me for saying this, needs to spend less energy on Defense. I know that sounds ludicrous, but the fact that teams know he’s the last line of defense does more harm than chasing out every ball handler on the pick and roll. Shaq is hard to understand, but, dammit, he’s right. Dwight needs to wake up and score. You think ORLANDO isn’t going to give him the ball if he demands it?

⁵This is completely random, but it bothers me that stalking has gotten this reputation as an activity of heathens when, really, stalking is an essential part of life. As an activity, it is nothing more than observing what you want and using knowledge of your prey’s behavior to conquer your target.  Somehow what is really the act of trolling has been confused for stalking. A sex-predator isn’t stalking teenage boys when he enters a Justin Bieber chatroom, he’s trolling to see if any of them bite, and then he’s reeling them in when they come to his house, only Dateline is always waiting for the troller-not-stalker. Or the Cops. Or Chuck Norris because he beats up bad guys, or something. ACTION MOVIES! I’m probably not fooling anyone… Its Dateline who’s waiting.. Stalking is productive…. I dunno, I’m running out of steam, and it’s probably a bad sign that my best argument to take back stalking is that it’s natural and somehow productive, but, yet, every time I type stalking it just reminds me that facebook stalking someone would be a good use of some downtime later. I don’t even care if I get a bite. Maybe I’ll try to take the word stalking back another time.

Horse 5. The Bull–Early Front Runner Obtain home-court advantage and hope Derrick Rose is healthy enough to play.   When I first jotted the outline for this, I put the Bulls in the same category as the Spurs, and was going to name it the “Tom Pop”. But it didn’t take me very long to realize that the Bulls aren’t really conceding anything nor are they holding out their best player, Derrick Rose, because of some sort of luxury that they have. As far as I can tell the Bulls aren’t willing to concede home-court advantage to anyone. I also  don’t know if Derrick Rose is healthy enough to play because if he was, he would be playing. I know that whatever the problem is–groin, back, etc.–he hasn’t been able to stay on the court for very long. Very often people make the mistake of only looking at what is right in front of them⁶, and I tend to think that is a flawed strategy in every sense of observing basketball except in the case of injuries. Injuries are the one area where I have such a distrust of the information being given and the timetables written in disappearing ink that I can’t do anything but assume the worst. I If the Bulls have home-court advantage in every round, and are completely healthy I like their chances more than any other team. No bias. I just have my doubts about how realistic that scenario really is.

⁶Eventually sports fans will learn that the consensus of rumors should not be treated as something that is bound to happen; and what happens in a single regular season game never has an effect on the outcome of a future playoff series between the same teams (unless homecourt is decided, a major injury happens, or a player goes into the stands and gets suspended for the season etc.). The strengths and weaknesses of how teams match up with each other are what they are, and who won or lost in past matchups is NEVER the determining factor of who will win a playoff series.

Horse 6. Vinny—Mule If I don’t say anything, maybe people won’t realize that I’m like a dog chasing a car, I don’t know would do if I ever caught one You know how there were rumors that Heath Ledger lost his grip on reality because he couldn’t get out of the character of the Joker. If you google “Heath Ledger Suicide” it won’t take you long to find something written about how he had gotten too far into the mind of a maniac and he eventually took his own life as a result. Google is the smartest chick I know, and that story worries me as a parable for what might happen to my brain if I attempt to get into Vinny Del Negro’s head. I’m slightly worried that I won’t be able to get out⁷.

⁷I’m not trying to make light of Heath Ledger’s death. I’m experimenting with what it looks like in writing when I assume an internet urban legend is true, and subsequently applying the lesson of avoiding getting into the head of a man I do not fully understand.

Social Currency

This blog is about basketball, but am capable of making larger social points with my words. As a writer I have the luxury of being allowed to let words speak louder than actions. Through experimentation and reading others you can find ways of saying one thing, but leaving the reader thinking about another thing that I didn’t even mention–the thing I wanted you to think about. As long as I have your attention, you’re mine. There are little tricks, and like any good magician I’m not going to spoil things by giving them all away… I just want to a chance to comment on one trick that I’ve noticed being used mainstream in a manipulative way. 

I know I don’t post that often, but I’m a great writer. My biggest flaw is my own arrogance. Lucky for me, I’ve found a loophole: I can be self-aware and arrogant simultaneously. It’s really an unfair quirk about human interaction that by calling myself arrogant I disarm any attacks by those who want to accuse me of such unpleasantness. I know it’s my weakest trait, yet in the currency of language exchange I have cheapened attacks on my weakness by admitting my own arrogance. I’m hoping that’s enough to disarm any consequent snickering at this next statement: I’ve come to realize that my opinion on the NBA is important. I’m not saying I personally am of any significance because a messenger is only as important as his/her platform allows. I’m saying my opinion is important. It doesn’t hurt my belief in my message that a couple of NBA teams have expressed interest in my VITAL formula (even if it seems like they have less interest in me than finding out the contents of the formula as a starting point). I can assure you that I am much more valuable than my formula. At least my parents think so. Somehow, my message seems to be getting out there. I hear my thoughts echoed through other pundits who may or may not be gambling on the truth that nobody is going to remember where that the ideas were mine first. All anyone remembers is the most prominent person to say them, and all I have is my tiny soapbox to stand on. And, frankly, soap is shipped in cardboard boxes these days, so what I’ve got is more than flimsy. It didn’t help when it rained the other day, either. Cardboard never recovers from water damage. I know, I’m getting away from the point, but it’s difficult for me to resist running a good metaphor into the ground. Rambling also helps boost word counts¹.

Whether it comes from me or not, I like the sound of my own voice². I just don’t want most people to hear it through others. I’d rather they knew which soapbox it came from. I’ve been quiet lately on twitter and the site. It’s mostly a measured experiment³. I wanted a chance to observe the conversation of the basketball world without me. Since I’m doing this pro bono, I have that luxury. If you missed me, I appreciate it. If you pretend not to miss me (but secretly do), I appreciate you more. If you are wondering ‘where the hell did he go?’ I appreciate you most of all. I still heard my voice as I listened, but the ideas were a little staler because they were the same as before. I heard new ideas, but they seemed to be there just to stir the pot. I’m sorry I’m such a son-of-a-bitch. All the talent that is the NBA blogging community didn’t give me a single lasting thing. Even my favorite NBA blogger, the one with the best eye for detail⁴, didn’t give me anything other than the bullet points⁵. Maybe it’s just the speed at which the games are coming. It’s hard not to get a little Highway Hypnosis⁶–all the games are coming so fast that you become hypnotized by the fact that they are there without thinking about what they mean.

I know I’m arrogant, but I’m you can’t be mad about that because I already said it. If I accuse a certain race of having a small penis it’s OK because I too have a small penis. Yeah, social currency is great if you know how to manipulate it. I’m the best, but it’s OK, because I already said that was the weakness I chose to tell you was my weakness. Want me to post a pic to prove it?

OK, come back.

I don’t need to tell you what’s arrogance and what is true (the interest of NBA organizations is real, but really not as impressive as I probably made it sound–I’m writing a blog, after all). I’ll tell you that the opinion of the other NBA bloggers in my absence is false. That probably doesn’t make it OK for me to rip them, but at least it’s uncontroversial (unless you are an NBA blogger). Is that having my cake and eating it too? Maybe, but… What can I say? I’m arrogant.

It isn’t just Whitlock. He was just the most disgusting example within this blog’s wheelhouse of sports. Benign misdirection is OK because it’s fun to read (for me at least). But, in apologies, actions speak louder than words. I know you came for NBA opinion, and it’s here..somewhere… but this is still my soapbox and I get to comment on something that happened two months ago If I want to. It’s still on my mind. Manipulative apologies aren’t supposed to come from a sportswriter. They’re supposed to come from politicians. If I’m going to manipulate you, it’ll only be towards my opinion and I’m not going to tell you next time. It takes the punch out of things if I’m this honest. I don’t want the hot girlfriend who continuously tells me how ugly she thinks she is. Eventually I’m going to believe her despite the physical reality of things. It’s the same thing as reminding someone they are reading an argument halfway through. It might be technically flawless, but things just lose their punch if they become too self-aware. From now on, I’ll try not to remind you that you are reading an argument, but only if you promise me to remind yourself that you are listening to an apology whenever you hear it. Just know this isn’t the way to do it.

I hope that was vague enough to be specific about lots of things.

¹At some point, higher word counts became a badge of honor for the NBA blogger. I tend to think that long, thoughtful pieces are the very best kind of reads, but those are rare. The motion in the ocean will always be the most satisfying, but if you have length and motion you will get the girls (or boys). I’m talking about post content, of course. A well timed tweet will always lose to a thoughtless thousand-worder. I’m talking, of course, about Jason Whitlock’s racist opinion of Jeremy Lin’s male anatomy. What did you think I was this footnote was about?

²Can’t you tell?

³I did spend a few days away in Vegas (including one to recover) but I’ve got nothing to report because I was sworn to secrecy. Unless you want to pay me for it. KIDDING. 

$$$

⁴If you think I’m talking about you, you’re right.

⁵Please don’t take this as an insult. I’m well aware that I currently have the luxury of not being required to post those less potent thousand-worders. No deadline.

⁶Better call Saul. That’s my way of saying I stole that term from a television show.

Hopefully that wordcount was sufficient enough for you I don’t even know how many it was. I broke the pro buono wordometer.