If you’re listening, Oklahoma Thunder, I want to help

I won’t let them win

I know I don’t play the games, I only try to write the perception, but I can’t let them win because that means the perception never mattered in the first place. That all of my feelings of dislike, justified or not, aren’t worthwhile. I don’t ever think it’s a good thing to admit a Skip Bayless-like quality, but I think I might be drunk on the same power that he seems to be chugging. That what he says will have some sort of effect on the outcome of the games. It’s a weird, but intoxicating feeling. Last year brought it out of me. It felt like all of us were literally in LeBron’s head, and that he was believing what he read about himself. A million reasons floated around as to why LeBron was flawed, and when it appeared that something mental, not physical, was causing him to play like he did it was almost as if we were all correct simultaneously. It was if he read that he didn’t have what it takes to be a champion, and then some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy written by the internet formed in his head. It was a crazy experience, and I honestly believe it to be partially true. I don’t think I’m the only one, either. People still shout he can’t do it as loud as they can almost as if they’re hoping, just maybe, he’ll start listening again.

It’s not like last year, though. We can’t get in LeBron’s head because he doesn’t care about what we’re saying anymore. He learned better. The Thunder are listening, though. And we, the internet, continue to shout because it seems like we’re getting to them. It’s not as fun as the it was to bring down the Heat because it’s not as earned. But I am positive that they are listening to the noise in addition to whatever they might be doing to try to beat the Heat. I can hear it in their comments during interviews: Russell Westbrook heard about what Magic said about him being the worst point guard in Finals history; Scott Brooks is quoting Eric Spoelstra about games being decided by a few plays; and Perkins is listening to what his family members tell him people are saying, shouting at broadcasters. They’ve let on that we have an impact on their story. So, if you’re there, Oklahoma Thunder, maybe I have what you’re looking for. I’m not going to try to crush you like I did to LeBron last year and Wade this year. There’s no point. We’ve proven that there is a thing as too much noise in celebrity culture. Unlike some starlets, the Heat have been reduced to a fountain of clichés and serious gazes. Just look at the picture above. Look how tired Wade and LeBron look from this journey. They look like they aren’t even having fun on the court, and just want to get it over with. Whatever it is. I don’t want you to be like that, Thunder. Maybe there’s a way to use social media to be positive, and make it feel like the it’s the best thing ever because you are the good guys.

So, this is my pep talk. It’s not just fluff. I did my homework. And, since you’re listening, I wrote something that I think will help each of you. Think of these notes as private emails that I’d send you if I really had your private email addresses. I intended for you to only read the passage addressed to you, but I have no way to police that, obviously.

Kevin,

I’m a little worried about you. Not about your offense–Serge was right about LeBron–your defense. You didn’t even take guarding Chalmers seriously, and you were awkward the whole time on him. How could you have only gotten one defensive rebound as far as you were playing off of him?! Those 5 free points you gave to him in the middle of the third quarter could have been the game! Just so you can get angry, I have the clip. If you can’t be angry about this you don’t deserve to win the title.

The only way you can fix this is by telling Scott Brooks you want to guard LeBron James. You are the best player on the team, and we both know that it doesn’t look good if you are avoiding LeBron. Yes, avoiding. It isn’t the coach’s call because you can demand to guard him and no one will stand in your way. If Coach brings up the foul troubles from games 2 and 3 remind him that most of those fouls didn’t come from guarding LeBron James in the halfcourt. Let’s go through the list:

Game 2:

1. Fouled Chris Bosh trying to stop a transition layup
2. Fouled Dwyane Wade after biting on a pump-fake
3. Offensive Foul
4. Fouled LeBron on a layup attempt
5. Committed a loose-ball foul against Udonis Haslem

Game 3:

1. Offensive Foul
2. Fouled LeBron James trying to stop a transition layup
3. Fouled LeBron James coming off a screen
4. Fouled Dwyane Wade on a drive
5. Fouled LeBron James trying to prevent a transition dunk

Just stop fouling in transition. Also, don’t bite on Wade’s pump fakes. Can you even remember the last time he had a finish at the rim that wasn’t laid out on platter for him by LeBron? Neither can I.

The team is better with you guarding LeBron. It’s not an option, you have to do it. We’re talking about a championship here. Commit to 30 minutes of LeBron duty and it will give your team 10 more points than if you don’t. Here’s how it could look:

Westbrook,

They can’t guard you. Keep doing your thing. Just don’t forget why you’re doing this: to win a championship. You aren’t doing it to prove how good you are. Everyone will know that when you win the title. Just make the right plays, and everything you are hoping to get out of this will eventually come.

Coach Brooks,

You are a great coach. ‘Decent’ coaches don’t out maneuver Greg Poppovich and Rick Carlisle in the same postseason, only great ones do. That being said, you’re doing a crappy job in the Finals. You don’t seem to trust yourself. What the hell happened to you, don’t you remember what happened a couple of weeks ago?

Down 2 games to 0 to the San Antonio Spurs, you moved Thabo Sefolosha onto Tony Parker and derailed the league’s best offense in one fell swoop. Like Pop did, Spoelstra  has you on the brink of elimination. Unlike that series, you aren’t getting blown out of the water. You smashed them in game one, and lost the last three by a couple of points each time. What genius maneuver can you do to turn the tables? The move that keeps Durant out of foul trouble was excessively conservative. That’s not a move you win with, it’s one you try not to lose with. Well, you lost, so here’s the best I can come up with: Start Collison instead of Perkins.

It’s not a demotion to Perk, who I happen to have a higher regard for than most, it’s to match Collison against Chris Bosh instead of Udonis Haslem. Collison’s mobility and activity is more suited to play against Miami’s small starting lineup than a more traditional center like Perkins, who is most effective when he’s allowed to patrol the paint works better against Haslem. It doesn’t have to be Perk, it can be Ibaka. Perk is a big boy. He can handle it. Here are the numbers:
The numbers are probably too good to be true, but even if they’re only one-tenth as accurate as they appear (23.6 points over 28 minutes), it means you are 2 points over 28 minutes better than the Heat. I would take that. Play Collison the first 7-8 minutes of each half, and then punish them with Perk off the bench.

 Perk and Collison,

Read the message I sent to Coach Brooks. You know this the right thing, Perk.

Thabo,

You should be defending the point guard. You are the best perimeter defender on the team, but you can’t stand in the way of Kevin and Russell’s battle. Besides, you could do so much more damage wreaking havoc in passing lanes than trying to stay in front of LeBron and Wade the whole game. Remember what you did against the Spurs? That’s how you get fast-breaks started.

James,

You know better than to get down on yourself like you did in Game 4 after that layup miss. Wade pushed you from behind, we both know he did it. Next time that happens, don’t be afraid to flip out and draw a tech because at least you’ll be blaming someone other than yourself. I’m not seeing the emotion from you that I know you have. So, the only other advice I can give you is to just have fun. Open shots have a way of eventually falling for good shooters like you.

Fisher,

You have my permission to read everyone else’s note, and if you feel like I did something wrong, please explain to them what they need to hear. There’s nothing else I can give you other than my confidence that you know what to do. If you don’t know the answer, after 8 Finals appearances, it means you haven’t thought hard enough about it.

Serge,

You are doing plenty that’s right, but you need to start boxing out, man. Your team is getting crushed on the boards, and you are letting it happen. There’s more to protecting the rim than getting blocks. Talk to Perkins about it. He can help you.

To everyone else,

We could be reliving that stupid celebration from the Summer of 2010 if the Heat win in Miami tonight. I’m not going to post the video. I don’t need to see it right now to remember what it looks like or hate it any more than I already do. Just remember that celebration when you watch tonight’s game. I tried my best to stop it. I don’t know if they’ll listen, but I tried.

Playoff Bracket

	1st Round					2nd Round					Conference Finals					Finals
	E1		4
	E8		2
						E1		4
						E4		2
	E4		4
	E5		3
											E1		4
	Eastern Conference
										E2		2
	E3		4
	E6		1
						E3		1
						E2		4
	E2		4
	E7		2
																E1		4
															W1		2
	W1		4
	W8		1
						W1		4
						W5		1
	W4		2
	W5		4
											W1		4
	Western Conference
										W2		3
	W3		4
	W6		2
						W3		2
						W2		4
	W2		4
	W7		2

The end of season solution we’ve been waiting for is here

The NBA may have good reason to keep a frenzied end to the regular season schedule moving forward.

Most people are ready for the playoffs to start, I, on the other hand, am very interested in how the stretch run towards the playoffs will play out over the next few weeks. The playoffs happen every single year… how often do 66-game-compressed-seasons happen? I probably don’t mean that in the most literal sense, but, unlike other seasons, I think that the strategy a particular team chooses to pursue entering the playoffs will have a bigger effect than it normally does. I’m sure the NBA will go back to 82 games, but PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE keep the condensed schedule during the last month of the season. It certainly makes how a team enters the playoffs more important and allows everything to be up for grabs with such a large bulk of games at the end. The body of work will still be most important for the very top seeds and everything else will be up for grabs. The difference is that it will just happen in a frenzy before a week’s break–that teams will gain by condensing the schedule–leading into the playoffs¹. Logistically, I haven’t thought about how what the the number of games the end-block would be, but I’m thinking 15 games in 25 days and then a week before the playoffs to recover.

¹I also think a condensed end of schedule will help with tanking because teams probably won’t be able to decide if they should tank or not until they know where they stand when that end-schedule frenzy comes. At that point, for the fans of teams that choose to tank it will be quick and painless instead of prolonged.  Maybe it’s a little out there, but it’s been a hot topic in the blogosphere that I wanted to make sure I put my two cents in. 

Stalkers, Front Runners, Closers, Early Front Runners

I just came from Vegas and my gambling was mostly on sports. I stayed at the MGM Grand where the Sportsbook and racing book are located in the same area, and couldn’t help but overhear the frumpy-looking gentleman in cheap jackets talk about Closers, the people I heard loved betting on closers². I’m going to try and make the analogy fit to the various strategies teams are using to approach the playoffs without bothering to mind the actual definitions in horse-racing terms because they aren’t important. The season as a whole is always a marathon race of sorts, but, as I mentioned earlier, the strategy that teams choose to run isn’t really important because the typical NBA regular season is a horse race with breaks for oats that happen sporadically and unevenly. This year, there are less differences in teams’ schedule discrepancy because the fact that every team is playing on such little rest trumps who is playing who. It’s more of a genuine race, so monitoring the strategies of each team is more important than ever because there is less room for error.

²It was comforting hearing these compulsive gamblers favoring the closer in their program because it illustrated the point that it isn’t just NBA fans who are obsessed with the subject of favoring players who are known as closers. It’s clearly a sports pandemic. Yet, I don’t think an individual game is at all like a horse race, which worries me a little. Is closer too strongly associated with something good, in general?  Maybe NBA fans are being manipulated to watch “The Closer”. Remind me to email Kyra Sedgwick or Turner about that.

These are in the order that I thought of the strategy type. Read into that what you will:

Horse 1. Pop–Early Frontrunner Concede achievable regular season goals to ensure that the team is as healthy as it can possibly be going into the playoffs.  There is only one team using the Pop, and I think that the decision to do so is guided more by what happened last year than the shortened schedule. I’m convinced that this would be San Antonio’s approach heading into the playoffs because their entire season seems to be guided on the lessons and scars of failing to advance out of the first round despite winning a league-best 62 games in 2011. In my opinion, even though the Grizzlies were a bad matchup for the Spurs because of the Gasol-Randolph tandem, the most important factor in how that series was decided was that San Antonio lost home-court advantage, in the Grizzlies’ Game 1 victory, because their best player, Manu Ginobili, was not healthy enough to play. I had Manu Ginobili rated as the third best player in the league during the 2011 regular season (LeBron and Dirk were first and second, respectively), and most other metrics–eyeballs, adjusted +/-, WIn Shares–had Manu as the best Spur. To prevent history from repeating itself the Spurs were acquired Diaw and Jackson, two players that could immediately contribute as stand-ins to ensure Duncan and Manu will be as-healthy-as-possible when the playoffs arrive (I’m sure they tried to nab a point guard too, but it was a seller’s market). If Captain Jack serves as a catalyst for a big playoff moment or two, I think that’s gravy because Richard Jefferson, the man who Jackson replaced, didn’t seem to be good for any. I don’t think San Antonio is playing for anything other than health at this point even if the number one seed is within reach. Frankly, I think the Spurs like the idea of the Thunder playing the Grizzlies, Clippers, or Lakers in the second round. In my opinion, all of those teams match up better with Oklahoma City than San Antonio because the Spurs will just have no answer for the Thunder athletically.

Horse 2. Doctor Scotty Brown–Frontrunner Go all out for the stretch-run to achieve the best possible playoff seeding and hope momentum carries over to the playoffs. Every game is important. This is the strategy that seems to be the one every team uses in a typical 82-game season as contenders approach the playoffs. You know the story: try and peak as the playoffs approach. The actual effectiveness of the momentum strategy is something that’s difficult to prove as effective because so many teams use it that the good and bad results kind of cancel each other out. So, I’ll have to settle for the assumption that you, as a basketball fan, know that conventional wisdom says a team wants to be running on all cylinders heading into the playoffs³. The nature of this season, and the health factor has limited the teams using this. The Celtics, Thunder, and Lakers have all been blessed with both good health to their key players and talent that permits them to not have to position themselves for a first round matchup that makes them more likely to advance. By health, I mean, that the production of the three best players on these teams (Rondo, Garnett, Pierce⁴ for the Celts; Westbrook, Durant, Harden for the Thunder; Bryant, Bynum, Gasol for the Lakers) doesn’t seem to be affected by the day-to-day nature of whatever injuries they are playing with. Unlike teams using the Doug Hollins Voegel running style (which I will get to shortly), these teams seem to be less concerned with positioning themselves for particular playoff opponents.

³Trying to prove/disprove the conventional wisdom of the momentum strategy isn’t the point of this piece. I’m just trying to describe the different running styles of the horses in this race. I’m sorry I even brought it up. Too late now.

⁴I don’t feel like pretending that Ray Allen is one of the three best players on the Celtics. He’s there to hit open shots. Depending on how the ball bounces, any given player is capable of hitting an open shot. Remember when Glen Davis hit one against Orlando in the second round of the 2009 Playoffs? Glen freaking Davis. The Celtics will need Allen to beat the Heat or Bulls, but may be okay limiting him against any other Eastern team, including Orlando.

Horse 3. Riley–Closer In the land of no-practices, what you think you know is King. That, and talent. Mostly talent. The squabble I’ve heard these past few weeks, as the Heat have fumbled their way through “statement games” against important opponents (like the Thunder and Bulls) is that Miami’s strategy for the playoffs is to cruise along until they arrive. Come on, do you really believe that?  After all these years, I’d hope that the Media knows Pat Riley better than that. Maybe people just need something to talk about and Kevin Durant’s choirboy schtick isn’t moving the meter. The Heat play the Bulls twice, the Celtics twice, and the Thunder once. They have the luxury of waiting until the last possible second to turn it on AND grab home-court. Then again, maybe, when it comes to the Heat, logic doesn’t apply. One quick story on why I’m convinced this is Riley’s team: Back when Riley was with the Knicks, visitors to the Garden used to complain about the ball pressure being higher than the legal limit. Higher ball pressure means a bouncier ball. That’s something that would be easy to prepare for if the team practiced with such a ball. It’s also a curveball that could throw an unprepared pound-the-rock point guard, a shooter, or rebounder etc. off just enough to take their head out of the game. Knowing this history, I couldn’t help but smile when Jeremy Lin started complaining about the ball being too bouncy during the February 23rd Knicks at Heat game–this was at the height of Linsanity right before the all-star break. Half of what made me smile was my nostalgia for the days that Riley failed using such tricks against Jordan, and the other half was knowing that Spoelstra may call the plays, but the Heat are doing it the Riley-way. It’ll be interesting to see if the Heat will also adopt the physicality of those Knicks. More on that in another post. Oh, by the way, the Heat did in fact squeeze in a practice right before their game with the Knicks. Maybe they used bouncier balls, maybe they didn’t. I’d rather that than Dwyane Wade using martial arts to break a player’s face or arm. I’m not saying that he has done such a thing, just that if Riley wants to look for an edge I would rather he travel the extra-bouncy-ball-route.

Horse 4. Doug Hollins Voegel Gundy–Stalker Position team to be in the best possible opponent matchup. My version of stalker in the NBA race to the playoffs is more of the predatory version than what stalker has come to mean as an unfortunate side-effect of the internet⁵. These teams are more interested in positioning themselves for matchups than seeding. The Grizzlies seem to be aiming to make sure that they are in the Thunder’s half of the bracket, and, to me, look like they are avoiding San Antonio and the Lakers. The Grizzlies avoiding the Spurs may seem counterintuitive, especially with what happened last year, but the Spurs are kind of built to beat teams that win inside out like Memphis, the Lakers, or Dallas. Memphis can really punish a team when it has a size advantage like Oklahoma City or Dallas. If a team can neutralize Memphis’ size advantage, I don’t trust any of the perimeter guys (Gay, Mayo, Conley) to carry past any of their potential first round matchups. Memphis is built to beat a team like the Thunder because Oklahoma City will have a hard time scoring on a Memphis team that will make them pay for their turnovers and will force them to live by the three-pointer.

Philadelphia is not in full stalk mode, mostly because they are still trying to just win games to avoid Chicago or Miami, but their schedule closes with a flurry of road games against teams playing for something. In terms of favorable matchups, I like the Sixers over any East team other than the Bulls or Heat. Homecourt advantage or not.  The poor free throw rate is a little worrisome, but Chicago only makes two more free throws a game than. I’m also of the philosophy that free throws are just a means to score, and I don’t think Philly will have trouble in that area. Combine that with their defense, and I just think they just have too many ways to beat most of the East’s teams. I’ve maintained all year that they are the clear third best team in the East, and there is no reason to back off that stance now.

The best matchup for Indiana, I suppose, is Boston where they can really take advantage of their ways to score from the wing, but I don’t think they are going to scare anyone. To me, they are the weakest of the East’s playoff teams.

Orlando is the anomaly. They are abysmal in my team rater even though their style of play is something my formula favors (they were rated first in 2010 and ninth in 2011). Dwight is capable of being the most dominant player in the league if he scores like he’s capable of. For all of Shaq’s warts as a TV analyst, the one thing I love is that he gets on Dwight’s case. He has the “championship belt”, so to speak, as the most dominant big man, but forgive me for saying this, needs to spend less energy on Defense. I know that sounds ludicrous, but the fact that teams know he’s the last line of defense does more harm than chasing out every ball handler on the pick and roll. Shaq is hard to understand, but, dammit, he’s right. Dwight needs to wake up and score. You think ORLANDO isn’t going to give him the ball if he demands it?

⁵This is completely random, but it bothers me that stalking has gotten this reputation as an activity of heathens when, really, stalking is an essential part of life. As an activity, it is nothing more than observing what you want and using knowledge of your prey’s behavior to conquer your target.  Somehow what is really the act of trolling has been confused for stalking. A sex-predator isn’t stalking teenage boys when he enters a Justin Bieber chatroom, he’s trolling to see if any of them bite, and then he’s reeling them in when they come to his house, only Dateline is always waiting for the troller-not-stalker. Or the Cops. Or Chuck Norris because he beats up bad guys, or something. ACTION MOVIES! I’m probably not fooling anyone… Its Dateline who’s waiting.. Stalking is productive…. I dunno, I’m running out of steam, and it’s probably a bad sign that my best argument to take back stalking is that it’s natural and somehow productive, but, yet, every time I type stalking it just reminds me that facebook stalking someone would be a good use of some downtime later. I don’t even care if I get a bite. Maybe I’ll try to take the word stalking back another time.

Horse 5. The Bull–Early Front Runner Obtain home-court advantage and hope Derrick Rose is healthy enough to play.   When I first jotted the outline for this, I put the Bulls in the same category as the Spurs, and was going to name it the “Tom Pop”. But it didn’t take me very long to realize that the Bulls aren’t really conceding anything nor are they holding out their best player, Derrick Rose, because of some sort of luxury that they have. As far as I can tell the Bulls aren’t willing to concede home-court advantage to anyone. I also  don’t know if Derrick Rose is healthy enough to play because if he was, he would be playing. I know that whatever the problem is–groin, back, etc.–he hasn’t been able to stay on the court for very long. Very often people make the mistake of only looking at what is right in front of them⁶, and I tend to think that is a flawed strategy in every sense of observing basketball except in the case of injuries. Injuries are the one area where I have such a distrust of the information being given and the timetables written in disappearing ink that I can’t do anything but assume the worst. I If the Bulls have home-court advantage in every round, and are completely healthy I like their chances more than any other team. No bias. I just have my doubts about how realistic that scenario really is.

⁶Eventually sports fans will learn that the consensus of rumors should not be treated as something that is bound to happen; and what happens in a single regular season game never has an effect on the outcome of a future playoff series between the same teams (unless homecourt is decided, a major injury happens, or a player goes into the stands and gets suspended for the season etc.). The strengths and weaknesses of how teams match up with each other are what they are, and who won or lost in past matchups is NEVER the determining factor of who will win a playoff series.

Horse 6. Vinny—Mule If I don’t say anything, maybe people won’t realize that I’m like a dog chasing a car, I don’t know would do if I ever caught one You know how there were rumors that Heath Ledger lost his grip on reality because he couldn’t get out of the character of the Joker. If you google “Heath Ledger Suicide” it won’t take you long to find something written about how he had gotten too far into the mind of a maniac and he eventually took his own life as a result. Google is the smartest chick I know, and that story worries me as a parable for what might happen to my brain if I attempt to get into Vinny Del Negro’s head. I’m slightly worried that I won’t be able to get out⁷.

⁷I’m not trying to make light of Heath Ledger’s death. I’m experimenting with what it looks like in writing when I assume an internet urban legend is true, and subsequently applying the lesson of avoiding getting into the head of a man I do not fully understand.

Social Currency

This blog is about basketball, but am capable of making larger social points with my words. As a writer I have the luxury of being allowed to let words speak louder than actions. Through experimentation and reading others you can find ways of saying one thing, but leaving the reader thinking about another thing that I didn’t even mention–the thing I wanted you to think about. As long as I have your attention, you’re mine. There are little tricks, and like any good magician I’m not going to spoil things by giving them all away… I just want to a chance to comment on one trick that I’ve noticed being used mainstream in a manipulative way. 

I know I don’t post that often, but I’m a great writer. My biggest flaw is my own arrogance. Lucky for me, I’ve found a loophole: I can be self-aware and arrogant simultaneously. It’s really an unfair quirk about human interaction that by calling myself arrogant I disarm any attacks by those who want to accuse me of such unpleasantness. I know it’s my weakest trait, yet in the currency of language exchange I have cheapened attacks on my weakness by admitting my own arrogance. I’m hoping that’s enough to disarm any consequent snickering at this next statement: I’ve come to realize that my opinion on the NBA is important. I’m not saying I personally am of any significance because a messenger is only as important as his/her platform allows. I’m saying my opinion is important. It doesn’t hurt my belief in my message that a couple of NBA teams have expressed interest in my VITAL formula (even if it seems like they have less interest in me than finding out the contents of the formula as a starting point). I can assure you that I am much more valuable than my formula. At least my parents think so. Somehow, my message seems to be getting out there. I hear my thoughts echoed through other pundits who may or may not be gambling on the truth that nobody is going to remember where that the ideas were mine first. All anyone remembers is the most prominent person to say them, and all I have is my tiny soapbox to stand on. And, frankly, soap is shipped in cardboard boxes these days, so what I’ve got is more than flimsy. It didn’t help when it rained the other day, either. Cardboard never recovers from water damage. I know, I’m getting away from the point, but it’s difficult for me to resist running a good metaphor into the ground. Rambling also helps boost word counts¹.

Whether it comes from me or not, I like the sound of my own voice². I just don’t want most people to hear it through others. I’d rather they knew which soapbox it came from. I’ve been quiet lately on twitter and the site. It’s mostly a measured experiment³. I wanted a chance to observe the conversation of the basketball world without me. Since I’m doing this pro bono, I have that luxury. If you missed me, I appreciate it. If you pretend not to miss me (but secretly do), I appreciate you more. If you are wondering ‘where the hell did he go?’ I appreciate you most of all. I still heard my voice as I listened, but the ideas were a little staler because they were the same as before. I heard new ideas, but they seemed to be there just to stir the pot. I’m sorry I’m such a son-of-a-bitch. All the talent that is the NBA blogging community didn’t give me a single lasting thing. Even my favorite NBA blogger, the one with the best eye for detail⁴, didn’t give me anything other than the bullet points⁵. Maybe it’s just the speed at which the games are coming. It’s hard not to get a little Highway Hypnosis⁶–all the games are coming so fast that you become hypnotized by the fact that they are there without thinking about what they mean.

I know I’m arrogant, but I’m you can’t be mad about that because I already said it. If I accuse a certain race of having a small penis it’s OK because I too have a small penis. Yeah, social currency is great if you know how to manipulate it. I’m the best, but it’s OK, because I already said that was the weakness I chose to tell you was my weakness. Want me to post a pic to prove it?

OK, come back.

I don’t need to tell you what’s arrogance and what is true (the interest of NBA organizations is real, but really not as impressive as I probably made it sound–I’m writing a blog, after all). I’ll tell you that the opinion of the other NBA bloggers in my absence is false. That probably doesn’t make it OK for me to rip them, but at least it’s uncontroversial (unless you are an NBA blogger). Is that having my cake and eating it too? Maybe, but… What can I say? I’m arrogant.

It isn’t just Whitlock. He was just the most disgusting example within this blog’s wheelhouse of sports. Benign misdirection is OK because it’s fun to read (for me at least). But, in apologies, actions speak louder than words. I know you came for NBA opinion, and it’s here..somewhere… but this is still my soapbox and I get to comment on something that happened two months ago If I want to. It’s still on my mind. Manipulative apologies aren’t supposed to come from a sportswriter. They’re supposed to come from politicians. If I’m going to manipulate you, it’ll only be towards my opinion and I’m not going to tell you next time. It takes the punch out of things if I’m this honest. I don’t want the hot girlfriend who continuously tells me how ugly she thinks she is. Eventually I’m going to believe her despite the physical reality of things. It’s the same thing as reminding someone they are reading an argument halfway through. It might be technically flawless, but things just lose their punch if they become too self-aware. From now on, I’ll try not to remind you that you are reading an argument, but only if you promise me to remind yourself that you are listening to an apology whenever you hear it. Just know this isn’t the way to do it.

I hope that was vague enough to be specific about lots of things.

¹At some point, higher word counts became a badge of honor for the NBA blogger. I tend to think that long, thoughtful pieces are the very best kind of reads, but those are rare. The motion in the ocean will always be the most satisfying, but if you have length and motion you will get the girls (or boys). I’m talking about post content, of course. A well timed tweet will always lose to a thoughtless thousand-worder. I’m talking, of course, about Jason Whitlock’s racist opinion of Jeremy Lin’s male anatomy. What did you think I was this footnote was about?

²Can’t you tell?

³I did spend a few days away in Vegas (including one to recover) but I’ve got nothing to report because I was sworn to secrecy. Unless you want to pay me for it. KIDDING. 

$$$

⁴If you think I’m talking about you, you’re right.

⁵Please don’t take this as an insult. I’m well aware that I currently have the luxury of not being required to post those less potent thousand-worders. No deadline.

⁶Better call Saul. That’s my way of saying I stole that term from a television show.

Hopefully that wordcount was sufficient enough for you I don’t even know how many it was. I broke the pro buono wordometer.

Basketball Bystander Podcast Episode 1

During PodcastEpisode1 I talk about the Finals, weddings, officiating, and give my theory about what happened to LeBron James.

The topic of LeBron James will be touched on. Or beaten to death. Depending on your perspective.

PodcastEpisode1

My Most Important Post Ever

Now or never

This is two days late, and I choose not to accept responsibility for that. Instead, I blame Bill Simmons. He quickly wrote this gorgeous column about what happened to LeBron before I could get mine up. As a result, I thought to myself, “why even attempt to top that?” This dude seems to have it going. I thought I could have added something more to the conversation, but I didn’t want attempt to upstage him.*

I’m weird like that. If another writer has it covered, then I don’t feel the need to add my own perspective. Then I think. Wait, maybe I’m not capable at all. Maybe I can’t even write. I wasn’t able to come up with a formulated idea, so I must not be good at what I do. I need to regroup.

I CAN DO THIS.

Maybe I should go look in the mirror and remind myself how smart I am. Hold on…

walks to the bathroom

“This is my most important blog post ever!”

walks back to computer

I Got This.

Ahem.

I came to the conclusion that everyone was trying to answer the question of “what” happened to LeBron James during Game 4 when that answer was obvious: He didn’t play like LeBron James. I don’t care how you want to label it: he was passive, he wasn’t looking to score, he settled, he looked like he was afraid. All of that rhetoric. Just like there are only so many ways you can say a guy performed great, there are only so many ways you can say that a guy played poorly. Everyone saw the game. He scored 8 points, and they lost.

So I looked for a physical issue in LeBron. I’ve been known to do that with struggling Heat players. After close examination, I found no problem with his physical abilities. So, by process of elimination the only answer was that it was mental.

Metaphorically speaking, people’s heads aren’t made out of glass. What I mean by that is you can’t just interpret what a person is thinking unless they tell you; either through words or actions. Pardon me for not trusting the words of players or coaches who are sticking to scripted bullet points during their press conferences. As a result I mostly have to go by what I’m looking at on the court, and that includes body language.

In the playoffs body language is the most important thing because the stats don’t represent a large enough sample size to be significant of a trend. It’s my job, as a writer who aims for accuracy, to remark on body language. Whether that happens to be plays, reactions, or whatever. We are watching athletes perform on a stage, so to speak. The way they do things is just as important as what they do. Any one who tells you otherwise is an idiot.

If a guy appears physically OK, by process of elimination, it has to be mental. We can all accept that. Right? LeBron became a completely different player than the one we had seen the entire season.

I’m not going to speculate on a cause, or on what he was thinking. I’m just not going there. There are little bits in my twitter feed about possible reasons for a lack of aggression, but the truth is, I just don’t know. Like everyone else, I’m aware of some of the rumors about possible off-the-court-drama, but those are irrelevant. Whether they are true or not. It’s indeterminable what does and does not fit within the context of of affecting LeBron mentally, while playing basketball. There’s no point to going any further than that.

What I can tell you is that LeBron’s teammates watched the game film, and they likely saw the same thing as I did: a “leader” of their team, for whatever reason, mentally lost his ability to be effective.  As a result, the whole focus of the last two days seemed to become “how to get LeBron back on track” after the sudden loss of confidence. That’s one heck of a distraction for a team trying to win a title.

The Heat did their best

“LeBron needs to realize his teammates are there for him,” Dwyane Wade communicated during the off day. What was remarkable about this was that Dwyane was addressing the media without LeBron. Something that, Heat apologist Dan Le Batard, suggested the organization tries to curb. According to Le Batard, this is done to prevent questions to Dwyane about something LeBron said or vice versa without the other being present. A tool to prevent a vengeful media from muddying the communication between the two stars. It makes sense to me.

But his teammates didn’t seem to be doing the trick. So, LeBron took it upon himself to find the answers. He attempted to overcome whatever was creating his admitted doubts about being out of rhythm by publicly placing importance on the game. “It’s Now or Never,” he tweeted. Later admitting that this was done to motivate himself. “This is my most important game ever,” LeBron went on.

Maybe I’m simplifying things, but trying to draw motivation from a mind that has already been poisoned with self doubt won’t solve an issue of confidence.

Assume that LeBron magically found that confidence he was looking for through his own motivation. (Considering what we saw during Game 5, I don’t think it happened, but go with it.) How can you come back to your teammates, having lost your head, and still expect them to trust you? The seed of doubt has already been planted. Worse, there’s evidence this may have happened before. If I’m a teammate, could I overcome the obstacle that all of this work to achieve the goal of a title might not lead to anything because this guy might lose his mind again? I mean, that’s that. As long as Dallas remains focused it’s over.

So let’s visit Miami’s to-do list in preparation for Game 6:

1. Make sure LeBron has overcome whatever lack of mental hurdles he may be suffering. A work in progress based on a scoreless fourth quarter.
2. Convince teammates that what they do is still important, even though it isn’t if LeBron loses his mind again. Can’t achieve this goal without having finished the first one.

1. Digest and formulate a game plan for defeating a focused Dallas Mavericks team. I guess this can happen without the first two. But it’s execution during the game depends on the first two. Also, will the gameplan involve further acts of Dwyane Wade transparently faking an injury?

That’s why I think the Heat are done, and I didn’t really need to see Game 5 to have this opinion. It only affirmed what I thought: Dallas never played like they thought they would lose, and the Heat didn’t look like they thought they could win. I mean, whatever Dwyane Wade was doing with the injury scenario wasn’t working. Are we supposed to buy that this guy is really physically impaired? The whole thing with the trainer leaning in to tell Riley about something as his wife struggled to keep a straight face. My cynicism wasn’t helped by the fact that Wade came out of the locker room shortly after LeBron showed some sign of being aggressive. I literally was able to predictively tweet when Wade would come back. It seemed nonsensical.

Maybe I’m being harsh. There was one apparent injury: an injury in the faith of straight communication to fix things.

While I’m calling out players for B.S., I do want to touch on DeShawn Stevenson. This guy was so off. LeBron couldn’t hide his obvious loss of confidence, and Wade couldn’t believably sell the notion that he was injured. If he thinks “LeBron and Wade are good actors,” what’s bad acting?

 

*Just to get myself on the record, I left my thoughts to dangle on Twitter here. Not the best place to go on the record. I should have just written the post. I seem to be bad at Twitter or something because I have no followers. But my use of Twitter isn’t about followers. The way I tweet, is to claim thoughts. I don’t go around and bitch at people who later come to the same conclusions because I don’t have to. I mean, there’s a freaking time stamp. I thought of it first. That’s the only affirmation I need. I must be missing something.

Are you there God? It’s me, Dwyane.

Dwyane’s teammate ‘Rio spotted him open for three, just in front of their opponent’s, the Dallas Mavericks, bench. ‘Rio fired the pass, and upon catching the ball Dwyane, launched his shot attempt; kicking out his right leg while landing on his left one. The ball floated towards the hoop, and Dwyane’s momentum from the landing started to take him backwards. Without averting his eyes from the outcome of the shot, he held both arms in the air to center himself, to prevent a tumble. Realizing the ball was going in, his arms stayed raised in celebration, and he posed to savor the moment. The Mavericks’ head coach quickly signaled to the official for a timeout to help his team regroup.

While Dwyane’s MVP running mate, LeBron, loomed by the Mavericks bench area, waiting for his friend, the rest of their teammates headed towards their own huddle. After turning from the basket, the first place Dwyane looked wasn’t towards his opponents’ bench. It wasn’t at the hometown fans. It wasn’t even at his friend LeBron. The first place Dwyane’s stare went, was the baseline camera man, and then, eventually towards his teammate.

Passing through his opponents’ bench area, Dallas stars Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd averted their attention from Dwyane, while those sitting on the bench silently observed the Miami guard. Only the boisterous Jason Terry felt compelled to say anything.

Dwyane tried hard not to glance at LeBron as the MVP met him. “You want this?! Huh? You want this?!” LeBron barked. Dwyane wouldn’t take the bait. An ominous look had occupied his expression. The look wasn’t directed at LeBron, rather, it had been there the whole time, even, despite hitting such a crucial shot. “You want this?! B*tch!” LeBron continued as he playfully punched his teammate. He wasn’t going to let Dwyane walk by him with that look on his face. Dwyane began to crack, and his expression brightened the more LeBron goaded him. Fully smiling, Dwyane looked at LeBron and responded “B*tch? Of course. I got this!” Satisfied, LeBron bobbed his head excitedly as he skipped towards his team’s huddle. Dwyane slowly followed.

Following Dwyane’s shot, his team lead 88-73, with seven minutes and fourteen-seconds remaining in the game. They went on to lose the game 95-93. I’ve been hearing all day about how this was a big deal. And it was, just not for the reasons everyone is talking about. The importance of the exchange is apparent, but it’s not the fact that it was a celebration. It was everything but the celebration that was important.

Quick Prediction

Crown Him

After a Finals Preview from a social responsibility standpoint, it’s time to get back to basketball. I wanted to make sure I got on the record with something, so here’s a quick preview of things to come during the finals.

Miami’s strategy for scoring

Dallas’ halfcourt defense doesn’t get nearly enough credit. When it has a chance to get set, it’s one of the best in the league. While Chandler/Haywood protect the paint, Dallas has smart perimeter defenders who make an effort to contest jumpshots. Miami will rely on a two man game of James and Bosh in the halfcourt to score. I think that Dirk should guard Bosh. Dirk isn’t a defensive anchor, but he proved during the LA series that he can be a decent one-on-one defender, and I estimate that he has the length to at least bother Bosh’s jumper. The one thing Dirk needs to remember is he has to stay down on Bosh’s pump fakes so as not to foul. It’s really the only thing one needs to know as a defender on Bosh. Bosh may be able to get by Dirk, since he’s very quick for a power forward, but Chandler will be waiting to contest him at the rim. Bosh isn’t going to score over a well positioned Chandler. If Bosh feels like he has to pass out off the dribble, this is ideal, since I don’t see Bosh as a playmaker. Bosh has a tendency to get down on himself quickly after misses, so his defender should do his best to just force him into being a jumpshooter. To me, it would be a huge mistake to put Chandler/Haywood on Bosh because it would force Dallas’ defensive anchor too far from the basket, and would open driving lanes for Wade. Bosh is going to try probing Dallas’ defense for space, and it will have to be Dirk’s job to stay with him. When Dallas is forced to use Chandler on Bosh, Wade is going to feast. I imagine that Joel Anthony’s ineffectiveness will eventually force Miami to go small: with Haslem and Bosh both probing for space. In this scenario Dallas should still have Dirk on Bosh since Bosh can drift much further from the basket than Haslem. Chandler/Haywood can close on Haslem without much issue. Dallas needs to keep Chandler/Haywood as that last line of defense protecting the paint.

Wade has an injured right leg, and he will be limited in his usual effectiveness. As such, Stevenson, like Brewer/Bogans before him, can completely shut down this version of Dwyane Wade in the halfcourt; as long as Chandler is there to help defend. Wade has an unbelievable ability to still finish the way he wants to, despite the injury. When Terry is out there for Dallas, he will make Wade work hard enough on offense by running him through screens; something Chicago failed to do with Korver. Chicago just spotted their sharp shooter up, and Wade didn’t have to do much work on defense. Wade is looking to score when he touches the ball. I know he’s capable of being a passer, but he hasn’t shown it. He’s much too worried about making sure he gets left to represent threat off the dribble. As such, Dallas should work to take away his left first.

Even if Chandler stays home in the paint, Dallas could get into some trouble because they are one of the slowest teams in the league. Miami will attempt at making it difficult for Dallas to get their defense set. They’ll use Dwyane Wade and LeBron James to push the tempo to keep Dallas’ defense off-balance. Enter Dwyane Wade’s health concerns: it will be interesting to see how long Wade can last running up and down the court in transition. I think it represents Miami’s best chance at easy buckets, but it may not be a sustainable strategy. Miami should only try this if Dallas’ offense is proving too efficient in the half court.

Though he’s injured, Wade has shown he can handle enough of the offensive burden to keep James fresh. If he keeps knocking down jumpers, the best way to slow down LeBron down is to try to force him into becoming a scorer off the drive. Even then he is still quite capable. LeBron is so good, that I’m beginning to think there isn’t much that can be done to keep him from scoring.

Dallas’ strategy for scoring

Dallas moves the ball beautifully, and this should test Miami’s vaunted defense. Miami’s advantage lies in their ability to quickly close out on shooters. This allows Miami to pack all of their defenders around the paint, and rely on James and Wade’s ability to read passing lanes. But, I saw a Dwyane Wade who wasn’t closing out to shooters very quickly, so if they decide to continue this practice, the Heat will get torched from the three point line. James is the only one who can still close out with speed, but Dallas’ ball movement will keep him from doing this effectively enough to shut down the three point line. However, it must be noted that shooting is all about confidence. If Dallas loses faith in the 3-point line, it could have a snowball effect. I don’t think this will happen. Dallas has too many great shooters, and their offense has this unbelievable knack for taking open shots.

I suspect the Heat will start with Bosh on Nowitzki, but if he has problems, they’ll bring in Haslem. Bosh is the guy the Heat want to use on Dirk because it allows them to have James and Anthony/Haslem patrolling the paint. I don’t think it’s a good idea to put Joel Anthony on Dirk because he’ll foul out rather quickly, jumping at every pump fake. The Heat may not have much of a choice because I also think Dirk will torch the smaller Haslem. (I know what happened during the ’06 finals, but this is a different Dirk.) LeBron will probably guard Dirk during crunchtime. I think Dirk can shoot over him, but we shall see.

When LeBron isn’t guarding Dirk, he will be cheating towards the paint on everyone except Peja. Miami is best defensively when they have the threat of LeBron and one of their bigs in the paint. Peja can help to mitigate this, but the problem with having Peja out there is that LeBron will torch him on offense. Unless he’s smoldering from three-point range Stojakovic should only be used when Miami goes small. Marion’s ability to hit the corner three could be important. There’s no way LeBron will feel obligated to close out quickly on Marion. If he’s forced to, the Heat’s defense will suffer.

Prediction:

Dallas’ offense likes to play outside-in when Kidd is in the game, and plays inside-out when Barea is in the game. If the Mavs are able to somehow tire LeBron out by having to constantly adjust to these contrasting strategies while pulling a large load on offense, Dallas has a chance. I’m not Rick Carlisle, but my gameplan would be working to tire LeBron out. I can’t imagine someone can be superhuman to the level he has shown. They have to be patient though because LeBron has shown he’s able to maintain an amazing amount of energy at both ends of the court for an entire game. As long as this doesn’t change, I can’t see Dallas overcoming him and Miami 4 times. Too many things have to go right for them to win this thing, and LeBron represents too much of a constant problem. Miami in 7

Heat Gain the Upper Leg

LeBron appears determined to dunk a basketball into his opponent's basketball hoop

The Miami Heat were the better basketball team on Wednesday, and the Bulls will have until Sunday to stew about this one. That’s plenty, even excessive, to think about how they let Miami steal home court advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals. The short of how Miami won was that LeBron James took over the fourth quarter, shifting into that extra gear we expect great basketball players to have. After getting much needed relief from Udonis Haslem, and, of course, Dwyane Wade, to carry the burden of attacking the Bulls’ stout defense over the course of the game, LeBron seemed able to find remaining energy to generate effective offense for the Heat when they needed it most. Consider me the second line of defense, after rabid Heat fans, against those who want to say LeBron can’t get it done during crunch time because of some inherent defect. I just don’t think that’s true or fair.

I like to think “clutchness” exists. Unlike the mythical “killer instinct”, I define “clutchness” as something that can be achieved based on how one’s energy is dispersed. A player can figure out when to pick their spots during a game, and be able to have enough energy to make their last burst at the most meaningful point. It’s a lot easier to tap in to “clutchness” when one is a dynamic talent, as LeBron James is. By the end of the fourth quarter LeBron somehow had more energy than an entire Bulls team, despite having to shoulder a greater combined offensive and defensive burden than anyone on the floor. How did it get to that point?

The Bulls Wasted too Much of Their Energy on a Lost Cause:

The Bulls’ emotional compasses, Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, did a poor job of managing their emotions on the court, and it cost them the game. The 22 year old MVP, the one who is so mature beyond his years at controlling himself was especially poor at it. At times it was hard to tell if Derrick Rose was playing the Miami Heat or the officials. Though I want to tear into the officials for a bunch of momentum murdering calls (See what I did there?), the officials were not intentionally trying to take the Bulls out of their gameplan, but the Bulls allowed them to. The refs are human, and Miami had an equal number of questionable calls, and non-calls, go against them in this game. The difference was the Heat didn’t let the calls affect the way they played. Miami was too concerned about winning a basketball game, and the extra energy that the Bulls could have used to grab loose balls, run an efficient offense, and wear the Heat out with their size was wasted on a phantom cause. The refs made the mistake of calling the Bulls for ticky tack fouls at the beginning of the game, but, to me, it did not signal a reason for Chicago to suddenly change how they were defending LeBron or going for loose balls. Yet it did. The officials started to become an opponent for the Bulls. It’s hard enough to beat the Heat when fully focused on them.

During the opening minutes of the game Deng was called for a foul defending LeBron on a drive where there was no foul. The same happened to Noah on a loose ball where, again, no foul was committed. On top of that, Rose got two quick fouls called on him as soon as he started to get rolling. As a result, the Bulls’ focus was thrown off kilter, and they never were able to regain their rhythm. Bad calls shouldn’t change the way you play. Especially if what you are doing is legal. Eventually things even out in terms of calls. And they did. The Bulls’ own emotions, especially Rose and Noah, were spent fighting the officials, and it wore them out. This team has shown too much maturity to fall into something like that. Especially in a game of this magnitude. The Bulls better be ready for more early foul calls in South Beach. Just assume they’re coming, and know there’s nothing that can do about it. If the Bulls start to play like it’s 8-on-5, even though if it’s not, they will lose. Beating the Heat is a tall enough task. Trying to beat the officials is futile. And when it came down to winning time, the Bulls had nothing left in the tank because of it. The Heat, especially LeBron, did.

Miami’s Defensive Strategy on Rose:

Rose barreled himself into the lane time and again hoping for calls that seldom came. The Heat were playing 5+ feet off him, below the 3 point line, and he still managed to get in the lane. However, by the time he got their there were two Miami big men, and often LeBron waiting for him. The bailout calls should not and were not going to happen in those situations. Derrick knows better than to play that game. Should I give the Miami Heat defense some credit for the way they played defense on him? Sure. But Rose, and the Bulls’ offense in general, was impatient. It wasn’t like Miami was doing anything much different from Game 1. Miami stuck to the same basic defensive strategy: make Derrick Rose take jumpers. LeBron & Wade abided strictly to this code, and their length allowed them to close up any potential three point look Rose might fancy. The new wrinkle was when Bibby guarded Rose: he would defend him close until he crossed over the three point line and then completely back off him. This left Derrick the option of having wide open mid-range jumpers that the Heat would gladly live with. Credit should go to Bibby for executing as effectively as he did. I suspect the Heat will continue to mix up how they’re defending Rose, but what they did in Game 2 worked really well. The longer Bibby or Chalmers can save Wade and James from having to chase Rose around, the better. Obviously.

Dwyane Wade’s injury:

As I said in my previous post, Dwyane Wade’s right leg is injured. Though he made me doubt this postulation after two spectacular first half finishes at the rim jumping off his right leg, he was not the same player after doing so. The Bulls forced Dwyane Wade right during Game 1, and it paid off. They seemed to forget this strategy in the first half of Game 2. The defender that’s guarding Wade should simply force him to make plays moving right by going under screens to block off his left, or cheating to block off his left when no screener is present. Whatever is needed. Just don’t let him go left! I don’t think Wade will be able to hurt the Bulls enough to win the game if he’s forced to always move right. If he does, I think the Bulls can live with it. To quote a T-Mobile commercial: I may be wrong, but I doubt it. Who knows how low I’ll stoop to grab cliches before I admit this isn’t a big deal? Nah, I’m pretty sure I’m right about this one.

Wade finishing a gorgeous layup... Jumping off his right leg.

One more thing:

During the playoffs the Heat seem to work best when relying on Wade and LeBron to carry the offensive load at different parts of the game. In Wednesday’s Game 2 and Game 5 of the series against the Celtics, it was done by half: Wade handled the first half and LeBron handled the second half. During Game 1 the Bulls’ defense seemed to prevent any sort of plan of how Wade and LeBron divvied up the burden of primary ball handler. It’s something to keep an eye on.